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		<title>Client Newsletter 4Q22</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Oct 2022 22:52:34 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>Dear Ambassador Family, 2022 has been a momentous year!  It has reminded us that investments do not just travel in one upward direction. We will discuss how we see things near and longer term.  In short, we still lean toward playing defense, though we could see temporary reprieve in the markets. We have emphasized defense,<a class="moretag" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/client-newsletter-4q22/">&#160;  Read more &#10141; </a></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/client-newsletter-4q22/">Client Newsletter 4Q22</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Dear Ambassador Family</strong><strong>, </strong></h3>
<p>2022 has been a momentous year!  It has reminded us that investments do not just travel in one upward direction.</p>
<p>We will discuss how we see things near and longer term.  In short, we still lean toward playing defense, though we could see temporary reprieve in the markets.</p>
<p>We have emphasized <strong><em>defense</em></strong>, especially this year, because this is not just your money.  Your nest egg is a source of funding your retirement income, future dreams, and health care costs in retirement.  While we seek ways to grow your assets and find income, we also keep an umbrella on hand for rainy days – like 2022, maybe a little longer.</p>
<p>If you have other investments that might benefit from this approach, please come talk to us.  If you know someone who feels a little beat up after 2022 and needs some help, have them give us a call.</p>
<p>We are here to help.</p>
<h3><strong>Enjoy the Bear Market Rally While It Lasts…</strong></h3>
<p>Near term, we could see a mild bounce in the markets.  Markets experienced a sharp -15% decline from mid-August to mid-October. Markets since then have shown mild resilience.</p>
<p>Seasonality, hopes for an end to Fed rate hikes, and options speculation might allow for a temporary bounce.  3<sup>rd</sup> quarter earnings and macroeconomic data are a wild card.</p>
<p>While we have modestly taken up risk, we see it only as a tactical bounce over which major headwinds remain.  We would expect to take it off at higher levels perhaps toward the end of the year.</p>
<h3><strong>&#8230;But Serious Risks Still Remain. </strong></h3>
<p>Our medium-term concerns about risk assets remain:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Inflation</strong> continues to remain an issue.
<ul>
<li><u>Commodity scarcity</u>: in spite of higher prices, supply in most commodities is not rising. OPEC+ is cutting 2 million barrels of production, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will soon run out of barrels, and diesel inventories in the US are less than 30 days of supply, near all-time low.  Food harvests and rare earth (used in renewable energy) are also supply-constrained.</li>
<li><u>Labor wage hikes</u> are passing through the system. This in past cycles has been the real driver in times of stubbornly high inflation.  Railroad engineers, airline pilots, and other industries have received double-digit wage increases.</li>
<li>The question is not necessarily whether inflation near-term has peaked, but rather <u>where will inflation plateau</u>. Consensus expectations call for inflation to drop only to 5% next spring from over 8% currently. (Bulls need inflation to fall to 2%.  Given supply shortages and government spending, we are concerned that hope might be too optimistic.)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><strong>Interest rates</strong> remain an overhang:
<ul>
<li>Short and long-term interest rates hover at +/-4%, <u>the highest in over a decade</u>. In the meantime, the Fed is still catching up.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><u>The bulls expect the Fed to “cry uncle</u>” similar in 2018-9. In a matter of months, the Fed shifted from raising to cutting rates due to fears of economic recession.  The stock markets rallied.</li>
<li><u>What is different today</u> 2018 is that inflation and fiscal spending are both much more serious issues.</li>
<li><u>If the Fed stops raising or even cuts rates</u>, it runs the risk of a new inflation surge. Markets might like it initially, but at some point, we fear the rally would end as investors realize the inflation genie is out of the bottle.</li>
<li><u>If the Fed keeps on going</u>, we risk seeing deflation in the form of price declines in financial markets.</li>
</ol>
<h3><strong>Other Issues Include: </strong></h3>
<ul>
<li>Retail investor sentiment (what they really do, not what they say) is still elevated. BofA investors still maintain high allocations to stocks versus history (and well above pre-pandemic).</li>
<li>Corporate earnings are subject to disappointment and reduction (margin pressure, demand weakness). Transport companies, a barometer for the overall economy, have warned about declines in volumes entering the holiday season (and the stocks have suffered).  Wall Street still expects earnings growth in 2023 despite signs of a weaker economy.  We believe this is overly optimistic.</li>
<li>The surging US Dollar has not only driven debt costs higher for emerging markets, but also has pressured large developed market currencies (UK, Japan). Markets fear a violent spiral in devaluation might also take their toll on assets held in the US.</li>
<li>Geopolitical risk (Ukraine, Taiwan) is another wild card.</li>
</ul>
<div class="su-box su-box-style-default" id="" style="border-color:#cccccc;border-radius:3px;"><div class="su-box-title" style="background-color:#ffffff;color:#000000;border-top-left-radius:1px;border-top-right-radius:1px"><strong>What You Need to Know about COLA &amp; Social Security</strong></div><div class="su-box-content su-u-clearfix su-u-trim" style="border-bottom-left-radius:1px;border-bottom-right-radius:1px">
<p><strong>If You Are Fully Retired</strong></p>
<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>Social Security and Supplmenental Security Income (SSI) benefits will rise +8.7% in 2023 starting January.</li>
<li>Medicare Part A and Part B Premiums will be decreasing by 3% in 2023.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>If You Are Still Working</strong></p>
<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>The inflation-adjusted maximum amount of earnings subject to Social Security tax will increase to $160,200.</li>
<li>If you took early Social Security and are working part time prior to full retirment age (FRA), earnings limit will increase to $21,240 before penalties will apply.</div></div></li>
</ul>
<h3><strong>How We Intend to Navigate This Landscape</strong></h3>
<p>Exiting the bull market of last year, we believe a prudent investment posture consists of 2 stages in the current environment.</p>
<p><strong><u>Stage 1: “Play Defense.” </u></strong></p>
<p>For 2022, we have focused on reducing downside risk.  We had entered the year moderately cautious on equities, and extremely cautious on fixed income (down over -15%, the worse year in decades).   Cash, large cap equities, and diversified strategies have been our main focus.</p>
<p><strong><u>Stage 2: “Go Back on Offense, But Be Careful.”  </u></strong></p>
<p>Timing is uncertain (it might take months or even years).  Markets and economic fundamentals will show true signs of bottoming.  The Fed might finally be able to cut interest rates.  Perhaps a systemic failure (a major bank or country) is needed to wash out markets.  At that point, we would begin to see some true value, especially in traditional assets.  Perhaps we might invest again in foreign markets (which have been major underperformers this decade).</p>
<h3><strong>The Newest Investment Is Not the Sexiest </strong></h3>
<p>For the first time in over a decade, US T-Bills might offer sufficient yield with minimal risk.  They now offer a potential tool to diversify investors’ nest eggs.</p>
<p><strong>Opportunities:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><u>Meaningful interest rates </u>are nearly 4% on a 1-year bill.</li>
<li><u>High liquidity</u> – you can get in and get out with minimal friction.</li>
<li><u>Short-duration</u> (&lt; 1 year) cushions interest rate risk – if rates rise further, your T-Bill matures soon and can potentially be reinvested at higher rates.</li>
<li><u>Credit risk is minimal</u> – thank you, US Government.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Risks:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><u>Opportunity cost</u> – other bonds have higher yields, but the risks are often much higher.</li>
<li><u>Reinvestment risk</u> – if rates were to fall, maturing debt would likely be reinvested at a lower coupon.</li>
</ul>
<div class="su-box su-box-style-default" id="" style="border-color:#cccccc;border-radius:3px;"><div class="su-box-title" style="background-color:#ffffff;color:#000000;border-top-left-radius:1px;border-top-right-radius:1px"><strong>Time Is Running Out for 2022 Roth Conversions</strong></div><div class="su-box-content su-u-clearfix su-u-trim" style="border-bottom-left-radius:1px;border-bottom-right-radius:1px">
<p>If you are thinking about Roth Conversions for 2022, time is running out. Here’s what you might need to know before making this decision:</p>
<p><strong>The Deadline is December 31, 2022</strong></p>
<p>The deadline for all 2022 conversions is December 31. The distribution(s) must be made in 2022 and reported on your Form 1099-R.</p>
<p>Don’t put it off too long. Make sure to leave enough time to complete the transaction.</p>
<p><strong>What’s the Trade-Off?</strong></p>
<p>Converting IRA funds to your Roth IRA account will increase your taxable income for 2022. This can impact your deductions, credits, phaseouts, taxation of your social security benefits, and Medicare Part B and Part D premiums.</p>
<p>The <span style="text-decoration: underline;">trade-off</span> is a big tax benefit down the road. If all requirements are met, distributions from your Roth IRA account will be taken income-tax free to you.</p>
<p><strong>Get Professional Advice First</strong></p>
<p>If you have questions about conversions, don’t guess. We are here to help. </div></div>
<h3><strong>Do You Have Excess Cash Earning Next to Nothing?</strong></h3>
<p>If you have extra cash sitting in your bank account, chances are it’s earning yields next to nothing.</p>
<p>You might be able to allow more of your money to take advantage of higher interest rates with modest risk. Come talk to us to explore if this might help you.</p>
<h3><strong>Tips From a Pro</strong></h3>
<p>Do you want to avoid the slaughterhouse during this bad market environment? Here are a few tips:</p>
<ul>
<li>Pay intention to what you are invested in, especially in your retirement plans. Get Active!</li>
<li>Actively manage your accounts and understand that buying index funds (today) might actually harm you.</li>
<li>Avoid being invested in target-date funds.</li>
<li>Prioritize quality and value over fads and trends.</li>
</ul>
<h3><strong>Conclusion</strong></h3>
<p>As you set your New Year’s resolutions, I encourage you to be proactive with your financial planning.  You can control your future, but it’s up to you to make it happen.</p>
<p>2023 will likely be a difficult year. If you prepare, be proactive, and plan ahead you will be able to look to the future with confidence, even in times of uncertainty.</p>
<p>I’m here to cheer you on along the way.</p>
<p>Sincerely,</p>
<p>Petr Burunov, CFP®<br />
President / Wealth Strategist</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/client-newsletter-4q22/">Client Newsletter 4Q22</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">6785</post-id>	</item>
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		<title>Is Anything Safe?</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2022 10:00:43 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial Planning]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://ambassador.partners/?p=6752</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Nothing in this life is absolutely safe.  Even getting out of bed involves taking risks. Fear can push many people into making emotional decisions that might cost your family dearly. Many people in vain seek safety in bank accounts, insurance annuities, or cash “under the mattress?” In guarding against one type of risk, they assume<a class="moretag" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/is-anything-safe/">&#160;  Read more &#10141; </a></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/is-anything-safe/">Is Anything Safe?</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nothing in this life is absolutely safe.  Even getting out of bed involves taking risks.</p>
<p>Fear can push many people into making emotional decisions that might cost your family dearly.</p>
<p>Many people in vain seek safety in bank accounts, insurance annuities, or cash “under the mattress?”</p>
<p>In guarding against one type of risk, they assume other types of risk.</p>
<ol>
<li>
<h3><strong>Inflation Pressures Your Standard of Living</strong></h3>
</li>
</ol>
<p>Most of us know what’s happened with the price of gas.  And food.  Travel.  Real estate.  Taxes….</p>
<p>Prices are going up.  The latest official government numbers in July of 2022 show consumer prices rose over 9% from a year ago, the worst in 41 years.<a href="#_edn1" name="_ednref1">[i]</a>  Food rose over 10% and energy over 40%.</p>
<p>Sitting on “safe” investments still reduces your wealth.  Your money flows out more quickly to maintain your standard of living.</p>
<ol start="2">
<li>
<h3><strong>Locking in Low Rates of Prospective Return If the World Gets Better</strong></h3>
</li>
</ol>
<p>Current rates on 5-year bank CDs are still less than 1%.<a href="#_edn2" name="_ednref2">[ii]</a>  Fixed annuities pay slightly over 4% for a 5-year term (but beware of hidden charges, surrender penalties, and lockups).<a href="#_edn3" name="_ednref3">[iii]</a>   Cash in the wallet or mattress earns you about zero.</p>
<p>Ignoring stocks, real estate, and other investments might cost you opportunity as they have produced stronger returns over longer time periods.</p>
<p>People who work with us benefit from our insights on the right mix of assets to seek to protect and grow their wealth.</p>
<ol start="3">
<li>
<h3><strong>“Hotel California”</strong></h3>
</li>
</ol>
<p>Have you read the fine print on “safe” investments such as annuities and CDs?</p>
<p>It’s easy enough to “check-in” and invest in an annuity.  However, if and when you want to take money out, you might find it’s a lot more difficult (and more costly) than you realized.</p>
<p>Surrender charges, stated values versus what you actually get, and pushy insurance people can complicate your access to your money – and how much you might pay to get it out.</p>
<h3><strong>So, what should you do instead? </strong></h3>
<p>Find a rational, compassionate advisor who will know your family and work for your best interest.</p>
<p>Don’t get on the emotional roller-coaster, otherwise, you will sell at the bottom and buy at the top.</p>
<p>All that glitters is not gold.  Neither is all that advertises “safety”.</p>
<p>I would be more than happy to guide your family in thinking through these issues logically.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a class="button btn-primary" href="https://ambassador.partners/contact-us/">Schedule A Call Today</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 8pt;"><a href="#_ednref1" name="_edn1">[i]</a> <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm</a>  accessed on July 18, 2022.<br />
</span><span style="font-size: 8pt;"><a href="#_ednref2" name="_edn2">[ii]</a> <a href="https://www.bankrate.com/banking/cds/cd-rates/#top-cd-rates-by-term">https://www.bankrate.com/banking/cds/cd-rates/#top-cd-rates-by-term</a>  accessed on July 18, 2022.<br />
</span><span style="font-size: 8pt;"><a href="#_ednref3" name="_edn3">[iii]</a> <a href="https://www.annuity.org/annuities/rates/">https://www.annuity.org/annuities/rates/</a>  accessed on July 18, 2022.</span></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/is-anything-safe/">Is Anything Safe?</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">6752</post-id>	</item>
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		<title>Should I Wait Out Uncertainties in The Market and Start Planning When Things Settle Back Down?</title>
		<link>https://ambassador.partners/resources/should-i-wait-out-uncertainties-in-the-market/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Jul 2022 09:00:59 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://ambassador.partners/?p=6718</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>In times of prosperity or hardship, your financial health should be a top priority. We all check in with our doctor, even in seasons of good health. Your finances are no different. Finances can have a big impact on your lifestyle. Just ask people who wanted to retire during the 2000 or 2008 corrections. Many<a class="moretag" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/should-i-wait-out-uncertainties-in-the-market/">&#160;  Read more &#10141; </a></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/should-i-wait-out-uncertainties-in-the-market/">Should I Wait Out Uncertainties in The Market and Start Planning When Things Settle Back Down?</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In times of prosperity or hardship, your financial health should be a top priority. We all check in with our doctor, even in seasons of good health. Your finances are no different.</p>
<p>Finances can have a big impact on your lifestyle. Just ask people who wanted to retire during the 2000 or 2008 corrections. Many of those who had wanted to retire but did not plan beforehand suffered.  Some had to keep working. Others settled for a reduced standard of living.</p>
<p>Today’s challenges include rising taxes, inflation, interest rates, and market volatility.</p>
<p>It is understandable to be nervous about the future. Your bills are going up even if you’re not buying more.  Taxes are higher and more complicated. News of war, violence, and famine adds uncertainty.</p>
<ol>
<li>
<h3><strong>Take Advantage of Opportunities </strong></h3>
</li>
</ol>
<p>Returning to the first question, let me answer with another question.  In these uncertain times, would you benefit from less help – or more?  Today, if you sit in cash, you are already losing money!  Look at your grocery or gas bill. Inflation of even just 10% a year means you can afford to buy 10% less simply by sitting in cash.</p>
<ol start="2">
<li>
<h3><strong>Be Prepared for All Surprises </strong></h3>
</li>
</ol>
<p>The AARP claims that 32% of Americans have a financial plan.<a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1">[1]</a> That’s less than 1 in 3 families.</p>
<p>I’ve watched families drown in the news cycle, only to end up depressed or in a panic. Others are too easygoing and ignore the bad news around them.</p>
<p>Rather than avoiding it, face your family’s challenges head-on.</p>
<ol start="3">
<li>
<h3><strong>Protect Your Family by Seeking Help </strong></h3>
</li>
</ol>
<p>A fiduciary advisor will help you understand real problems that affect your family. He can help you to prioritize what’s important and address tough questions to prepare for your future.</p>
<p>Advisors offer solutions to help deal with today’s volatility and advise against mistakes that you might regret later on. We help our clients budget, manage and diversify their investments, and leave a legacy for the next generation.</p>
<p>Complex and ever-changing tax and estate laws can feel daunting, but a fiduciary advisor can make these issues manageable for your family.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>So, the real question is “Are you ready to work with someone who can help you face the future with confidence?”</p>
<p>If the answer is yes, give us a call.  We would love to help your family!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a class="button btn-primary" href="https://ambassador.partners/#schedule-appointment">Contact Us</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 8pt;"><a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1">[1]</a> <a href="https://blog.aarp.org/money-talk/americans-financial-plan-is-not-to-plan">https://blog.aarp.org/money-talk/americans-financial-plan-is-not-to-plan</a>  accessed on May 16, 2022. </span></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/should-i-wait-out-uncertainties-in-the-market/">Should I Wait Out Uncertainties in The Market and Start Planning When Things Settle Back Down?</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">6718</post-id>	</item>
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		<title>My Grocery Bill Keeps Going Up. Any Suggestions?</title>
		<link>https://ambassador.partners/resources/my-grocery-bill-keeps-going-up-any-suggestions/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jun 2022 12:00:55 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Budgeting]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>Have you ever considered starting a garden? You may be surprised to learn that you can plant a garden on as little as one-fourth of an acre that supplies a good portion of your family’s needs. For those without any land or living in an apartment, consider microgreen kits or tower gardens. With the right<a class="moretag" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/my-grocery-bill-keeps-going-up-any-suggestions/">&#160;  Read more &#10141; </a></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/my-grocery-bill-keeps-going-up-any-suggestions/">My Grocery Bill Keeps Going Up. Any Suggestions?</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Have you ever considered starting a garden?</p>
<p>You may be surprised to learn that you can plant a garden on as little as one-fourth of an acre that supplies a good portion of your family’s needs.</p>
<p>For those without any land or living in an apartment, consider microgreen kits or tower gardens. With the right lighting, you can even grow produce in a garage.</p>
<p>Still not convinced to start planting? Here are 3 benefits of having a garden.</p>
<h3>Benefit 1: Better Health</h3>
<p>Produce at the supermarket generally contains preservatives or other protections that allow for longer shelf life. Often, it comes from far distances out of state.</p>
<p>The downside is that produce at the store loses nutrients that could otherwise be protected if it were sourced closer to home.</p>
<p>Additionally, you have no control over the use of pesticides or GMO crops.</p>
<p>In contrast, growing your own produce gives you more control. Your food will contain all the naturally occurring nutrients. Some people even like the taste of their own home-grown fruits and vegetables better.</p>
<p>Outside gardens might also provide other health benefits such as exercise, sunshine, and fresh air.</p>
<h3>Benefit 2: A New Hobby</h3>
<p>Caring for a garden involves work, but it can be rewarding for many people.</p>
<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>Choosing which seeds and coupling them with the right soil, fertilizer, time to sow, and time to harvest can be a satisfying challenge.</li>
<li>Watching small seeds sprout into full-grown plants.</li>
<li>Harvesting fruit or vegetables for your dinner table (or to share with your neighbor).</li>
<li>Try a variety of veggies in your salad or outright new recipes.</li>
<li>Growing herbs that can help soothe pain or lighten up your mood.</li>
</ul>
<p>Gardening can grow on you as a new hobby.</p>
<h3>Benefit 3: Your Home Garden Might Lower Your Grocery Bill</h3>
<p>Of course, this was the main reason for your question. While the savings at first might not seem like much, consider that as you grow out your garden, you also pay less at the supermarket. Also, if you grow your own supply of your favorite vegetables, you have less to worry about in seasons of supply chain shortages.</p>
<p>There can be many benefits of growing a garden beyond lowering your grocery bill.</p>
<p>Do some research. Talk to friends and neighbors who are expert gardeners. Visit a nursery or garden store and maybe even take classes on gardening. Start small and expand your horizons as you get more comfortable. Enjoy and share the fruits of your home garden.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a class="button btn-primary" href="https://ambassador.partners/#schedule-appointment">Free Consultation</a></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/my-grocery-bill-keeps-going-up-any-suggestions/">My Grocery Bill Keeps Going Up. Any Suggestions?</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">6682</post-id>	</item>
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		<title>Investment Update: May 2022</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 05 May 2022 21:24:10 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Investments]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>Dear Ambassador Family, Here&#8217;s A Brief Update on Your Investments: As recently mentioned in the quarterly newsletters in January and April, your portfolios entered the new year with a moderately cautious stance. We still maintain that same view. Monitoring economic and corporate earnings data thus far reported it is possible that the choppy volatility in<a class="moretag" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/investment-update-may-2022/">&#160;  Read more &#10141; </a></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/investment-update-may-2022/">Investment Update: May 2022</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: georgia, palatino, serif;">Dear Ambassador Family, </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;"><b>Here&#8217;s A Brief Update on Your Investments:</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">As recently mentioned in the quarterly newsletters in <a href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/client-newsletter-1q22/">January </a>and <a href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/client-newsletter-2q22/">April</a>, your portfolios entered the new year with a moderately cautious stance.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">We still maintain that same view. Monitoring economic and corporate earnings data thus far reported it is possible that the choppy volatility in the market environment might persist for a while.  As mentioned previously, factors include:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Inflation (raw materials scarcity an issue, looming wage increases could complicate the picture)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">High traditional asset market valuations</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Risk to corporate profit margins from cost inflation, hence earnings at risk</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Tighter monetary policy</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Risk of economic recession</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Geopolitical tension (while lower on our scale of worries, it does feed through)</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Offsetting potential risks, investor sentiment near-term appears to be depressed (a contrarian indicator compared to the frothiness in 2021 following a strong market recovery).  Additionally, current interest rates remain low in historic terms.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">As a reminder, we have been reducing risk since last year:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Reduce buckets in traditional asset classes (fixed income and equities), including amounts and more volatile sectors (credit, small-cap)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Increase diversified bucket (hedged equity manager, select commodities)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Increase cash (dry powder to take advantage of opportunities when appropriate)</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">We remain vigilant of market risks and opportunities. Our bias remains moderately cautious, particularly on most fixed income and equities. As opportunities or risks present themselves, we anticipate making more changes to your portfolios.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">We will continue to keep you updated.</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Sincerely,</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">Petr Burunov, CFP®</span><br />
<span style="font-family: georgia, palatino, serif; font-size: 12pt;">President / Wealth Strategist</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/investment-update-may-2022/">Investment Update: May 2022</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">6671</post-id>	</item>
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		<title>Client Newsletter 2Q22</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Apr 2022 10:00:46 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Client Newsletters]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>Dear Ambassador Family, Happy Spring! We have a lot to talk about this quarter. Let’s jump right in! 2022 Will Be a Difficult Year Over the next couple of years, we expect the economy to struggle. We are taking proactive steps to ensure that, as the economy rotates and challenges come and go, each client’s<a class="moretag" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/client-newsletter-2q22/">&#160;  Read more &#10141; </a></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/client-newsletter-2q22/">Client Newsletter 2Q22</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Dear Ambassador Family</strong><strong>, </strong></h3>
<p>Happy Spring! We have a lot to talk about this quarter. Let’s jump right in!</p>
<h3><strong>2022</strong> <strong>Will Be a Difficult Year</strong></h3>
<p>Over the next couple of years, we expect the economy to struggle. We are taking proactive steps to ensure that, as the economy rotates and challenges come and go, each client’s positions are adjusted to fit their individual needs and goals.</p>
<p>If you anticipate any changes to your circumstances in the coming months, <u>please let us know</u>. The better we understand you and your situation, the more appropriately we can adjust your investments.</p>
<div class="su-box su-box-style-default" id="" style="border-color:#cccccc;border-radius:3px;"><div class="su-box-title" style="background-color:#ffffff;color:#000000;border-top-left-radius:1px;border-top-right-radius:1px">What's New?</div><div class="su-box-content su-u-clearfix su-u-trim" style="border-bottom-left-radius:1px;border-bottom-right-radius:1px">Here is a quick update on your Ambassador Team:</p>
<p>Debbie is scheduled for knee-replacement surgery this April. She eagerly awaits her return to work and appreciates your thoughts and prayers as she recovers.</p>
<p>We have welcomed Kecia Kulla to our team! She looks forward to interacting with each of you in the coming months.</p>
<p>Thank you for your trust. We look forward to serving you! </div></div>
<h3><strong>It’s Up to You to Protect Your Family</strong></h3>
<p>Each of you is in a unique situation. Depending on where you fall on the retirement timeline, we can offer some recommendations to potentially help you preserve your assets, grow your investments, and keep up with inflation.</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Retirement: You Are Retired. </strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="padding-left: 40px;">Set aside time to review your Trust documents. In seasons of high inflation and rising prices, you potentially might position your assets to mitigate estate taxes that your heirs might otherwise pay more of.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 40px;">The key in this stage is<em> <strong>income, tax &amp; estate planning</strong>. </em></p>
<ol start="2">
<li><strong>Preparation: You Are Getting Ready to Retire. </strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="padding-left: 40px;">As you prepare for your upcoming retirement, ask yourself if your investment accounts are working for you and if your business or real estate holdings are positioned to prepare you for retirement.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 40px;">The key in this stage is<em> <strong>income &amp; tax planning</strong>. </em></p>
<ol start="3">
<li><strong>Accumulation: You Are Establishing a Career.</strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="padding-left: 40px;">Establish a good, working budget to understand where your money is going. Think about ways to increase your savings, maximize retirement account contributions, invest in real estate, and/or work on paying down debts.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 40px;">The key in this stage is<em> <strong>budgeting &amp; saving</strong>.</em></p>
<p>Due to higher energy costs, geopolitical turmoil around the world, shortages of fertilizer, and various restrictions on trade between nations, we expect food costs will continue to rise. Some parts of the world might even suffer more supply chain shortages.</p>
<p>We have kept you informed about what we are doing with your portfolios to prepare for these challenging times ahead. Check out this sidebar for ideas everyone should consider to help their family in these inflationary times.</p>
<div class="su-box su-box-style-default" id="" style="border-color:#cccccc;border-radius:3px;"><div class="su-box-title" style="background-color:#ffffff;color:#000000;border-top-left-radius:1px;border-top-right-radius:1px">Ideas for Guarding Against Inflation: </div><div class="su-box-content su-u-clearfix su-u-trim" style="border-bottom-left-radius:1px;border-bottom-right-radius:1px">Consider these ideas to guard your family in inflationary times.</p>
<ol>
<li>Cut back on wasteful spending. Maybe eat out less and cook at home more. When you do eat out, consider ordering a cheaper meal (chicken over prime rib). You can also plan closer vacations or even staycations.</li>
<li>If you have some extra cash (and you find a good deal), consider buying extra goods that you know your family will use in the future. In a world of inflation, the dollar you spend today buys more than it will tomorrow.</li>
<li>Be prepared for more taxes. Taxes are going up (even if the laws don’t change). A hot real estate market might make you homeowners feel better about your net worth. That said, higher home values mean property taxes will also be racing up next year.</li>
<li>Consider Estate Planning. Save your heirs from unexpected (and unnecessary) taxes. As the value of your assets grows due to inflation, be aware of exceeding state and federal estate tax thresholds. When you pass on, your heirs might be surprised to find taxes will eat up a bigger piece of their inheritance than expected. </div></div></li>
</ol>
<h3><strong>Investment Thoughts (by Petr Burunov &amp; Stuart Quint)</strong></h3>
<p>In our last newsletter, I told you that 2022 was likely to be quite different than 2021.  So far, it has.</p>
<p>Both stocks and bonds have declined moderately.  (In fact, bonds have declined slightly more.)</p>
<p>While the economy is cooling off, prices are not.  As a consequence, the Fed for the first time in 3 years started to raise interest rates.  Though we are near historically low-interest rates, the fact remains that bond yields, which used to be notably above inflation, are significantly below.  Controversy exists as to how far the Fed can raise rates without putting the economy into recession.  Yet, inflation has now resurfaced for the first time in decades as a serious potential problem to people’s purchasing power.</p>
<p>Consider the recent news in Germany, Europe’s largest economy.  Supermarkets just announced price increases from 20 to 50% on over 300 products.  While the official excuse is the war in Ukraine, remember that supply chain issues and commodity price hikes had begun well before the end of February. In fact, prices started to go up in the first half of 2021</p>
<p>Closer to home, many of you have noticed higher gasoline prices.  Not only are commodity costs rising, but prices for homes, appliances and even wages are also moving up.  After several decades of modest inflation, we are experiencing an environment more similar to the 1970s.</p>
<p>As mentioned in our previous newsletter, we entered the year moderately cautious about risk.  Stocks looked richly valued, and bonds even more so.  Traditional stocks and bonds might face further headwinds to posting compelling returns while inflation and higher interest rates loom.</p>
<p>Part of your portfolios has been invested in what we call a “diversified” bucket. This “diversified” bucket consists of select alternative investments that are less reliant on traditional stocks and bonds. Their purpose is to add potential stabilization to your portfolio while seeking positive returns.</p>
<p>Examples include precious metals, commodities, and long/short strategies. Precious metals might serve as a hedge either against higher inflation and/or recession.  Base commodities such as energy, agriculture, and metals face supply shortages and have the potential to appreciate in US Dollar terms.  Your long/short manager has the potential to benefit from price dislocations in companies in both rising and falling markets.</p>
<p>Though markets have recovered tremendously from the trough last month, it appears early to declare the coast is clear.  First-quarter earnings could introduce near-term volatility.  Economic data appears to be slowing (jobs, housing market, consumer confidence).  Add in uncertainty surrounding further Fed rate hikes and geopolitics.  We would not be surprised to see further choppiness in markets in the coming months.  Furthermore, you should not be surprised to see further traditional risk being reduced in your portfolios in the coming weeks and months.</p>
<div class="su-box su-box-style-default" id="" style="border-color:#cccccc;border-radius:3px;"><div class="su-box-title" style="background-color:#ffffff;color:#000000;border-top-left-radius:1px;border-top-right-radius:1px">SECURE Act Regulations &amp; Inherited Roth IRAs</div><div class="su-box-content su-u-clearfix su-u-trim" style="border-bottom-left-radius:1px;border-bottom-right-radius:1px">Roth IRAs are an excellent retirement savings tool. Some advantages are:</p>
<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>Tax-free growth</li>
<li>No RMDs (require minimum distributions)</li>
<li>No stealth tax impacts</li>
<li>Tax-free distributions</li>
</ul>
<p>But did Roth IRAs just get more attractive? Let’s take a look at a newly released SECURE Act regulation.</p>
<p>According to the IRS, when an IRA owner dies on or before their RBD (required beginning date), the beneficiaries will be subject to a 10-year rule and annual RMDs. Your beneficiary will have to calculate annual RMDs for years 1-9 and take the remaining balance during the 10th year after your death. Missed RMDs incur a 50% penalty. Yikes.</p>
<p>But we’re talking about Roth IRAs. The IRS confirmed that all Roth IRA owners are considered to have died before their RBD. Put simply, beneficiaries of Roth IRAs have no annual RMDs, even though the 10-year rule still applies.</p>
<p>Roth IRAs offer complete flexibility within those 10 years and have no complicated RMD restrictions. The best part is, that Roth IRAs can grow tax-free for 10 years before any distributions are required. </div></div>
<h3><strong>Upcoming Changes</strong></h3>
<p>Every year there seems to be some form of adjustment made by Congress to impact your retirement. This year is no exception.</p>
<p>Congress already passed several rules to defer RMDs (required minimum distributions) and increase annual contribution limits. Pending a Senate vote, more changes are coming. Stay tuned for future updates.</p>
<h3><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h3>
<p>It’s great to have money, but at the end of the day, your bottom line is what counts. Remember: <span style="color: #328d9f;"><strong><em>it’s not about how much you make, it’s about how much you keep</em></strong></span><em>.</em> This is where planning, savings, and budgeting is crucial.</p>
<p>Plan for the taxes and unexpected circumstances. I want to see you thrive.</p>
<p>Sincerely,</p>
<p>Petr Burunov, CFP®<br />
President / Wealth Strategist</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/client-newsletter-2q22/">Client Newsletter 2Q22</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
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		<title>Client Newsletter 4Q21</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Oct 2021 10:00:50 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Client Newsletters]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>Dear Ambassador Family, 2021 has been a bumpy ride, and I shared why in my last newsletter. As we head into the fourth quarter, I want to give you access to new strategies, address inflation, and speculate what’s to come after the holiday season. Let’s dive in. Are You Looking for a Unique Strategy? You<a class="moretag" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/4q21-client-newsletter/">&#160;  Read more &#10141; </a></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/4q21-client-newsletter/">Client Newsletter 4Q21</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Dear Ambassador Family,</strong></h3>
<p>2021 has been a bumpy ride, and I shared why in my last newsletter. As we head into the fourth quarter, I want to give you access to new strategies, address inflation, and speculate what’s to come after the holiday season. Let’s dive in.</p>
<h3><strong>Are You Looking for a Unique Strategy? </strong></h3>
<p>You know my heart and approach to developing holistic relationships with each of my clients.</p>
<p>In the same way, we look at managers with unique strategies that can increase prospects to help our clients meet their goals. We believe many of you might benefit from owning strategies outside of traditional US stocks and bonds.</p>
<p>Over the years, we have been building relationships and allocating portions of client assets into managers with strong niches. Examples include Japanese stocks, long-short equities, commodities, and managed futures.</p>
<p>One of our managers closed their strategy to new, outside investors. However, all existing and future clients of AWM still have access to these strategies because of our long-term relationship with the manager.</p>
<p>If this sounds intriguing to you, come talk with us to see if it’s a good fit for you and your family.</p>
<h3><strong>Inflation Will Impact Your Family</strong></h3>
<p>Unfortunately, your investments are not the only thing going up. Anyone who has recently gone for a drive, enjoyed a meal out, vacationed, or bought a house knows that things don’t cost what they used to, especially in the Pacific Northwest.</p>
<p>Filling up your gas tank is 40% more expensive compared to a year ago. Food prices are up over 4%. Restaurant prices are up 7%. Some companies are even charging higher prices for smaller portions of food. No one is likely to forget that home prices have risen over 13% in the last year.</p>
<p>These are all examples of inflation. As you can imagine, inflation can take a real bite out of your standard of living.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div class="su-box su-box-style-default" id="" style="border-color:#cccccc;border-radius:3px;"><div class="su-box-title" style="background-color:#ffffff;color:#000000;border-top-left-radius:1px;border-top-right-radius:1px">2022 Social Security Changes</div><div class="su-box-content su-u-clearfix su-u-trim" style="border-bottom-left-radius:1px;border-bottom-right-radius:1px">
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><strong>Big Raises Are Coming</strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">Social Security and SSI benefits for roughly 70 million Americans will increase 5.9% in January of 2022. This is the largest increase since 1982.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><strong>New Full Retirement Age (FRA) </strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">Full retirement age is going up from 66 and 1o months to 67. This means waiting an additional 2 months to qualify for 100% of benefits.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><strong>Earned Income Threshold </strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">In 2022, the maximum taxable earnings cap is rising from $142,800 to $147,000. High earners could pay more in taxes in the upcoming year.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><strong>Monthly Payouts </strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">The monthly maximum payout is increasing by $197 a month, totaling $3,345.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><strong>Disability Income </strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">Disabled workers will be able to earn slightly more in 2022 without losing their benefits. The allowed amount is increasing from $1,310 to $1,350 per month.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><strong>Qualifying for Retirement </strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">To qualify for Social Security, workers must earn 40-lifetime work credits. In 2022, one credit is earned for every $1,510 in earned income. The cap remains at 4 credits per year.</span></div></div>
<h3></h3>
<h3><strong>Inflation Might Be Here to Stay</strong></h3>
<p>We’ve heard some say, “Well, this is transitory. Gas prices won’t rise 40% again! They should eventually go back down as they pump more oil.” This news can be difficult to hear, but we think many of the gains are here to stay and might even continue to rise in other areas.</p>
<p>What’s our reasoning? Here are a few things to consider:</p>
<ol>
<li>Many commodity companies are cautious on spending capital expenditure to produce more goods even with higher prices. (The oil company Chevron recently forecasted minimal high spending on boosting oil production even with higher prices. Farmers in many parts of the world have had poor harvests, which will limit supply again in 2022.)</li>
</ol>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ol start="2">
<li>There is a global shortage of computer chips. Have you wondered why it is so hard to buy 2021 car models? It’s because they have many chassis, but unfinished interiors or engines because they lack the electronics! Several observers fear the shortage will last well into next year.</li>
</ol>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ol start="3">
<li>Labor shortages in a number of industries have caused supply bottlenecks and price spikes. For example, railroads and truckers have seen an exodus of workers, some due to retirements without sufficient hiring of young workers. Notice the plethora of “Help Wanted” signs, particularly at restaurants.</li>
</ol>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ol start="4">
<li>The shortage of shipping containers is an issue for global trade, especially for economies like the US that heavily rely on cheaper imports from Asia. Just look at the record-high backlog of container ships that create delays to unload for West Coast ports.</li>
</ol>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ol start="5">
<li>Remember, taxes might also rise due to either changes in tax laws that we have highlighted in past letters or simple inflating asset values. For example, higher home values lead to higher property tax assessments.</li>
</ol>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>You Can Fight Back Against Inflation</strong></h3>
<p>You can’t avoid inflation, but there are some steps you can take to help alleviate it.</p>
<p>First, <strong><u>budget</u></strong>. Focus on the expense side. Do you know how much you are spending on gas, food, and going out?  When you understand where your money is going, how much you are spending, it’s easier to prioritize non-discretionary expenses (needs) over discretionary expenses (wants).</p>
<p>Next, <strong><u>prioritize</u></strong>. When staring in the face of inflation, you must decide what is most important to you and your family.</p>
<ol>
<li>You can maintain your current lifestyle and spending habits (which will rise so long as we remain in an inflationary environment) but at the expense of future income generated by savings and investments. Or,</li>
<li>You can look for ways to control your spending by adapting your lifestyle, maintaining your current savings and investment strategies, and recognizing that taxes might be a bigger concern for your family.</li>
</ol>
<p>It’s also important to understand that your investments and assets are working for you and have the potential to keep up with inflation.</p>
<p>Lastly, <strong><u>take action</u></strong>. Work with your team of trusted professionals to collaborate with you on a game plan and carry it out. Your plan does nothing for you unless it’s put into action. Also, remember to check in from time to time to review and make necessary adjustments to your plan.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div class="su-box su-box-style-default" id="" style="border-color:#cccccc;border-radius:3px;"><div class="su-box-title" style="background-color:#ffffff;color:#000000;border-top-left-radius:1px;border-top-right-radius:1px">Inheriting Your Spouse’s IRA</div><div class="su-box-content su-u-clearfix su-u-trim" style="border-bottom-left-radius:1px;border-bottom-right-radius:1px">
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Most individuals list their spouse as the primary beneficiary for their IRA. It matters how the surviving spouse treats their inherited IRA. Let’s use Bob and Brenda as an example.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><strong>Inherited IRAs </strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">If Bob passes and Brenda (45) needs money to live on right now, the best solution for Brenda is to establish an inherited IRA. She will be able to use those funds without any penalties.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><strong>Spousal Rollover </strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">Once Brenda reaches age 59½, she can roll over her inherited IRA into her personal IRA. Doing so beforehand will trigger a 10% penalty on all distributions before 59½.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><strong>RMDs </strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">A spousal inherited IRA could either benefit you or harm you, particularly from a tax perspective. One of the biggest factors to consider is the age of the deceased spouse and the current age of the surviving spouse.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Each situation is different, which is why it’s important to get proper advice before deciding how to proceed.</span> </div></div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>The Bottom Line: Now Is the Time to Prepare for 2022</strong></h3>
<p>Start this last quarter of 2021 with a fresh perspective on your investment strategies and financial planning.</p>
<p>I hope the tools in this letter will help you as we continue to navigate through these challenging months. Know that I and my team are a resource for you and your family. Please let us know how we can help.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Sincerely,</p>
<p>Petr Burunov, CFP®<br />
President / Wealth Strategist</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/4q21-client-newsletter/">Client Newsletter 4Q21</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
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		<title>Investments 101: Inflation and Bonds: Toast of the Town or Simply Toast?</title>
		<link>https://ambassador.partners/resources/investments/inflation-and-bonds-toast-of-the-town-or-simply-toast/</link>
					<comments>https://ambassador.partners/resources/investments/inflation-and-bonds-toast-of-the-town-or-simply-toast/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Stuart Quint]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Oct 2018 08:30:43 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Updates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bond yields]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US treasury bonds]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://ambassador.partners/?p=3817</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Bonds have treated investors very well for the last two decades.  Inflation has been hard to find. Is this about to change? Up until this year, long-term US Treasury yields were the “toast of the town” for a long while.  Going back three decades, bond yields, for the most part, have declined (and prices have<a class="moretag" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/investments/inflation-and-bonds-toast-of-the-town-or-simply-toast/">&#160;  Read more &#10141; </a></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners/resources/investments/inflation-and-bonds-toast-of-the-town-or-simply-toast/">Investments 101: Inflation and Bonds: Toast of the Town or Simply Toast?</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ambassador.partners">AWM</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bonds have treated investors very well for the last two decades.  Inflation has been hard to find.</p>
<p>Is this about to change?</p>
<figure id="attachment_3818" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-3818" style="width: 500px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://ambassador.partners/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/chart-1.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="wp-image-3818 size-medium" src="https://ambassador.partners/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/chart-1-500x281.png" alt="Bond Yields Have Room to Rise Even If Inflation Hardly Budges" width="500" height="281" srcset="https://ambassador.partners/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/chart-1-500x281.png 500w, https://ambassador.partners/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/chart-1-768x432.png 768w, https://ambassador.partners/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/chart-1-610x343.png 610w, https://ambassador.partners/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/chart-1.png 800w" sizes="(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px" /></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-3818" class="wp-caption-text">Source: YCharts and Ambassador Wealth Management.</figcaption></figure>
<p>Up until this year, long-term US Treasury yields were the “toast of the town” for a long while.  Going back three decades, bond yields, for the most part, have declined (and prices have risen).  Bond yields touched new multi-decade lows even after the trough of the Great Recession in 2008.</p>
<p>Have bond investors enjoyed too much of a good thing?</p>
<p>Today, bond yields appear too low, even if inflation behaves.  If inflation were to rear its ugly head, then bonds could be “toast”.</p>
<p>Let us see why.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>“Real” vs. “Nominal” Bond Yields</strong></h3>
<p>The chart above examines yields on US Treasury bonds maturing in 10 years – with a twist.</p>
<p>Traditional charts display prices in <strong>nominal terms</strong>.  For example, an investor buying a US Treasury Bond with the intent to hold it to maturity in 10 years, the investor would receive interest of around 3.1% per year.  (Of course, this does not take into account any fluctuations in price from market volatility.  This is why bond investors should focus on total return, price return plus yield, and not just yield.)</p>
<p>However, many bond investors also look at bonds in terms of <strong>real returns.  </strong>Real returns consider how the income an investor receives tomorrow is impacted by the prices that investor will pay to support his or her lifestyle (or fund someone else’s liability).  In other words, take the nominal yield and subtract annual inflation to calculate the bond yield in real terms.</p>
<p>The chart above shows yields on US Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years in <strong>real terms</strong>.  (Sometimes, this presentation of bond yields is referred to as <strong>“real bond yields”</strong>.)   The rate of annual inflation is “core inflation” excluding food and energy.  This index is published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p>
<p>Nominal yields have risen from roughly 2.5% last summer to 3.1%.  Yet, when we look at bond yields in <strong>real terms</strong>, the increase appears quite modest (and yields quite low), even compared to recent history.</p>
<p>Currently, real yields are at 0.6%.  In other words, investing in the 10-Year Treasury would yield an investor income growing 0.6% above inflation (assuming it stayed constant).  <strong><u>That seems low</u></strong>.</p>
<p>Only 7 years ago in 2010, investors could have earned real yields as high as 2.5% above inflation.  That was a time where the Fed was not hiking interest rates.  Markets worried about the duration and sustainability of economic growth.  (Even some questioned whether the US was really in as bad shape as <strong><u>Japan 2 decades ago</u></strong>.)</p>
<p>Today is a different story.  The Fed is entering its third year of tightening.  The economy is entering the second longest duration of recovery in recorded US history.  (Of course, the size of the recovery is also weak by historical standards.)  Inflation might also be ticking upward (and certainly not negative, which was the fear only 7 years ago).</p>
<p>What is the conclusion?   Real bond yields might potentially have room to move up, even if we just look at recent history.  Even if core inflation stays tame, simply the premium on nominal yields to inflation could simply rise toward 2.5% from current levels.  Keep in mind that the Fed has begun to shed some of the bonds it bought in earlier, multiple bond-buying sprees of Quantitative Easing less than a decade ago.</p>
<p>If inflation ticked upward, that could put additional pressure on long-duration bonds.</p>
<p>Bond investors might be in for interesting times ahead…</p>
<p>Let us help your family to navigate through this challenging environment.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a class="button btn-primary" href="https://ambassador.partners/promotion-resources/investment-dashboard-2018-economies-us-and-international/">Download the White Paper</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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